'Unproductive' Credit and the South-Korean Crisis

We provide a novel empirical analysis of the South Korean economy that reveals large volumes of excess or 'unproductive' credit since the late 1970s, indicating that a sizeable proportion of total credit was used to refinance unprofitable projects. Our findings are consistent with the hypotheses of 'overlending' and 'overinvestment', which may reflect soft budget constraints and/or moral hazard. We argue that while these weaknesses were not on their own responsible for the financial crisis, their interaction with the risks emanating from capital account liberalisation created fertile ground for financial panic.

Energy Subsidies in the Arab World

The policy of maintaining tight control of domestic energy prices has characterized the political and economic environment in most Arab countries, together with many other parts of the world, for decades. The objectives behind such a policy range from overall welfare objectives such as expanding energy access and protecting poor households’ incomes; to economic development objectives such as fostering industrial growth and smoothing domestic consumption; and to politi- cal considerations, including the distribution of oil and natural gas rents in resource-rich countries. While energy subsidies may be seen as achieving some of a country’s objectives, this paper argues they are a costly and inefficient way of doing so. Energy subsidies distort price signals, with serious implications on efficiency and the optimal allocation of resources. Energy subsidies also tend to be regressive, with high-income households and industries benefiting proportionately most from low energy prices. However, despite such adverse effects, energy subsidies constitute an important social safety net for the poor in many parts of the Arab world, and any attempts to reduce or eliminate them in the absence of compensatory programmes would lead to a decline in households’ welfare and erode the competitiveness of certain industries. Therefore, a critical factor for successful reforms will be the ability of governments to compensate their populations for the reduction or removal of subsidies through carefully designed mitigation measures that protect the poorest and assist the economy in its long-term adaptation. We argue that a reform of energy pric- ing mechanisms in the Arab world may be seen as beneficial from more than one perspective, and as offering potential paths for reform. Nevertheless, this paper recognizes that the current political climate in the region will render the reform of domestic energy prices difficult in practice, such that reform may indeed be a medium- to long-term endeavour

Non-Linearity in the Determinants of Capital Structure: Evidence from UK Firms

We develop a model of the firm’s maximization programme in which the firm’s capital structure is a non linear function of a vector of costs including asymmetric information costs and is subject to a debt ceiling. Using conditional quantile regression methods, we test for the existence of such a non- linearity in a heterogeneous sample of UK firms and demonstrate that, by exploiting more fully the distribution of leverage, this technique yields new insights into the choice of leverage ratio. Not only is the estimated effect of the explanatory variables different at different quantiles of the distribution, we find evidence that the effect of a variable changes sign between low leveraged and high leveraged firms

Capital structure in South Korea: A Quantile Regression Approach

This paper analyzes capital structure in South Korea from 1991 until 1999. The paper makes use of quantile regression methods to explore the changing distribution of debt-capital ratios across firms and over time. We find clear evidence of heterogeneity in the capital structure of firms. There is also strong evidence of heterogeneity in the determinants of capital structure choice. The size of the firm and its rate of growth have a positive impact on debt at low values of the debt ratios, but a negative impact at high values of the ratios. By contrast, the proportion of net fixed assets has a negligible impact at low values of the debt ratios, but a significantly positive impact at medium or high values of the ratios. The observed non-linearities in the determinants of capital structure are consistent with an agency cost theory of capital structure, and with both a non-negativity constraint and an upper bound on debt.

Financial Liberalization and the Evolution of Banking and Financial Risks The Case of South Korea

The paper provides new insights into the role of financial liberalization in the South Korean financial crisis using a number of novel approaches. Firstly, primary information regarding the relaxation of financial restraints, such as interest rate ceilings, capital controls and reserve requirements, is collected and summarised. Secondly, this information is used to construct summary measures of financial liberalization. Thirdly, qualitative information on the role of financial liberalization in the financial crisis is presented from a new survey of 44 IMF, World Bank and Korean officials who had direct exposure to the events surrounding the financial crisis. Fourthly, the effects of financial liberalization on the evolution of banking and financial risks are estimated utilising a conditional CAPM with time-varying market risk. Finally, qualitative and quantitative findings are juxtaposed, allowing insights into the extent to which financial markets recognized the increased banking and financial risks, which emanated from financial liberalization.Financial liberalization; financial crisis; banking and financial risks

"Financial Policies and the Aggregate Productivity of the Capital Stock: Evidence from Developed and Developing Economies"

We collect data on a number of financial restraints, including restrictions on interest rates and capital flows and reserve and liquidity requirements, and capital adequacy requirements from central banks of 14 countries. We estimate the effects of these policies on the aggregate productivity of the capital stock, controlling for the effects of inputs and financial development and using modern econometric techniques. We find that financial development has positive effects on productivity, while the effects of financial policies vary considerably across countries. Our findings demonstrate that financial liberalization is a much more complex process than has been assumed by earlier literature, and its effects on macroeconomic aggregates are ambiguous.

Financial Policies and the Aggregate Productivity of the Capital Stock: Evidence from Developed and Developing Economies

We collect data on a number of financial restraints, including restrictions on interest rates and capital flows and reserve and liquidity requirements, and capital adequacy requirements from central banks of 14 countries. We estimate the effects of these policies on the aggregate productivity of the capital stock, controlling for the effects of inputs and financial development and using modern econometric techniques. We find that financial development has positive effects on productivity, while the effects of financial policies vary considerably across countries. Our findings demonstrate that financial liberalization is a much more complex process than has been assumed by earlier literature, and its effects on macroeconomic aggregates are ambiguous.Bank; Capital Flow; Capital; Development; Reserves

"Threshold Effects in the U.S. Budget Deficit"

We contribute to the debate on whether the large U.S. federal budget deficits are sustainable in the long run. We model the U.S. government deficit per capita as a threshold autoregressive process. We find evidence that the U.S. budget deficit is sustainable in the long run and that economic policymakers will intervene to reduce per capita deficit only when it reaches a certain threshold.

Excess Credit and the South Korean Crisis

over-borrowing, South Korea, financial crisis

Concentration in the banking industry and economic growth

We present an OLG endogenous growth model in which a reduction in the level of concentration in the banking industry exterts two opposite effects on economic growth. On the one hand, it induces economies of specialisation which enhances intermediation efficiency and thereby eco- nomic growth. On the other hand, it results in duplication of fixed costs which is detrimental for efficiency and growth. The trade off between the two opposing effects is ambiguous and can vary along with the dynamic process of financial and economic development. Using cross country industry data we find that banking concentration is negatively associated with industrial growth only in low income countries while there is no such asssociation in high income countries. These empirical findings support the model's prediction that there exist a different relationship between banking concentration and growth depending on the level of economic development